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The price test at 1.3417 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.3448.
Weak data from the U.S. labor market and GDP put significant pressure on the dollar, leading to a strengthening of the British pound. The release of reports showing an increase in jobless claims and weak GDP growth raised concerns among traders about the sustainability of the American economy. This negative information prompted a decline in the dollar against the British pound. It is expected that such disappointing economic indicators may prompt the Federal Reserve to approach raising interest rates more cautiously. The reduced likelihood of aggressive monetary tightening traditionally weakens the national currency, making it less attractive to investors.
Unfortunately, a lull is expected on the British economic front today, as no significant macroeconomic data for the UK is scheduled. The absence of new fundamental indicators suggests the pair will likely trade in a sideways channel, with limited movement. This consolidation period may be seen as a pause before possible future movements driven by external factors or upcoming releases.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3428 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to 1.3461 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3461, I plan to exit the market and immediately sell in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the pound can be expected today within the channel. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3408 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.3428 and 1.3461 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3408 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3374 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip reversal from the level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3428 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the support levels of 1.3408 and 1.3374 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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