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The EUR/USD exchange rate is rising, reaching the round level of 1.1800 and hitting its highest levels since March, as expectations of diplomatic progress on the Iranian issue are putting pressure on the US dollar. As a result, EUR/USD has strengthened for the eighth consecutive day.
Despite the lack of concrete results from peace talks over the weekend, market participants remain interested in riskier assets, hoping that the diplomatic window for Iran will remain open. US Vice President JD Vance expressed moderate optimism about the progress of negotiations, noting tangible progress, albeit without final agreements. This dynamic reduces the attractiveness of the US dollar, thereby supporting the euro.
Additional pressure on the US currency comes from uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rates. The dollar is holding near its lowest levels since early March, although risks associated with instability in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are limiting excessive investor optimism.
US President Donald Trump previously confirmed the start of an official blockade of the strategic maritime route by the US Navy and threatened to destroy Iranian military vessels approaching the restricted zone. In response, Iran issued threats against ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, maintaining a high level of geopolitical tension.
Moreover, concerns about a possible breakdown of the ceasefire and a resumption of armed conflict are partially supporting the dollar, limiting aggressive bullish positions on EUR/USD. Nevertheless, underlying macroeconomic factors continue to favor the development of the pair's upward trend, which began from the March lows.
From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above all moving averages, and oscillators are positive, indicating bullish dominance in the market. After breaking above the round level of 1.1800, the pair is likely to move toward the next round level of 1.1900, with resistance along the way in the 1.1820–1.1850 level.
The nearest support is at 1.1750; if this level fails to hold, prices may decline toward the round level of 1.1700. However, as long as oscillators remain positive, the path of least resistance is upward.
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