16.04.202609:05 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: U.S. Investigating Suspicious Oil Trades

While oil prices are somewhat stabilizing after a spike in volatility observed in the past month since the start of the U.S. war with Iran, the primary regulator of the derivatives market in the U.S. is investigating a series of suspiciously timed trades in the oil futures market ahead of recent policy changes by President Donald Trump regarding the war in Iran.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is leading an investigation into trading in oil futures contracts on platforms owned by CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Both exchanges have been asked to provide complete data.

Media reports indicate that the CFTC is investigating at least two instances over about two weeks in which trading volumes sharply increased shortly before significant announcements. The data requested from the exchanges includes the so-called Tag 50 identifiers of the organizations behind these trades.

For example, on March 23, short positions in oil futures and stocks worth billions of dollars were opened exactly 15 minutes before Trump announced the postponement of previously threatened strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure. A similar pattern was observed before Trump's announcement on April 7 regarding a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Activity in the futures market surged a few hours before that announcement, leading to a sharp drop in oil and gas prices.

Recent examples of sharp increases in oil trading volumes at key moments in the past few weeks have raised concerns about the potential misuse of substantial non-public information related to Trump's changing position on the war in Iran. Historical supply disruptions in the Middle East have led to sharp oil price rises at the onset of the conflict.

The CFTC and Intercontinental Exchange declined to comment on the investigation. A White House spokesperson redirected requests for comments to the CFTC.

"We are closely monitoring the situation in our markets and working closely with the CFTC to oversee trading activities," stated CME. "It's important to note that any market behavior analysis should include all platforms, including prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, where linked products are placed with minimal or no visibility."

CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller stated that the agency is monitoring oil futures trading for potential violations but declined to comment on any specific investigations.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at $92.54. This will allow targeting $100.40, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $106.83. Should oil prices fall, bears will attempt to take control of $86.67. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions, pushing oil down to a low of $81.38, with a potential decline to $74.85.