16.04.202620:10 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD Smart Money Analysis: The "Bullish" Pause May Be Short-Lived

The GBP/USD pair has already gained about 400 points amid a sharp increase in the likelihood of a sustainable ceasefire between Iran and the United States. Although negotiations in Islamabad failed, the market is expecting a new round and is clearly encouraged by falling oil prices and the absence of new missile strikes in the Middle East. I would highlight two reasons for the pound's rise. The first is technical: last week, a bullish imbalance (No. 18) was formed, and price effectively reacted to it on Monday night. In other words, a bullish signal appeared within a bullish trend. The second is geopolitical: the market had enough time to price in the worst-case scenario in the Middle East. After the failed talks in Islamabad, nothing fundamentally changed—oil did not hit new highs, no new missile strikes targeted Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The situation has not improved, but it has not worsened either. It is also worth noting that recent bearish patterns failed to trigger a bearish move, just like the sweep of bearish liquidity (marked by the red line on the chart).

As mentioned in previous analyses, an important and relatively rare "Three Drives Pattern" was formed, which initiated the current upward move. Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very beginning of the move, while the trend remained bullish throughout. At present, the ceasefire remains fragile, and the parties involved have not yet decided whether to continue negotiations or resume hostilities. Talks may resume this week, which is a positive factor. The Strait of Hormuz is under dual blockade, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could potentially face similar restrictions, which is a negative factor. However, as of Thursday, the overall situation remains unchanged. The Middle East situation could deteriorate further—or continue moving toward de-escalation.

The probability of a decline in both pairs still exists. At the same time, the "Three Drives Pattern" (marked by a triangle on the chart) allowed bulls to take control, which is already a strong positive factor. Yesterday, a second reaction to imbalance 16 was observed, but second reactions are usually weaker than the first. The pair also swept liquidity above the February 26 high, and together these two factors may trigger a corrective pullback. From below, the only notable bullish pattern is imbalance 18, which has already produced a reaction. A new imbalance 19 has also formed, which may generate a new buy signal today or tomorrow. The current bullish pause may be very brief—especially if news emerges about renewed negotiations and progress between Iranian and US delegations.

The economic news on Thursday allowed bulls to continue their advance, as UK GDP data for February came in stronger than expected, and industrial production also exceeded forecasts. However, two technical bearish signals led to a corrective pullback. Once again, traders chose to largely ignore the economic data.

In the United States, the overall information backdrop suggests that, in the long term, little can be expected other than a decline in the dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the US does little to change this. The long-term outlook for the dollar remains challenging: the US labor market continues to weaken, the economy is moving closer to recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not expected to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Additionally, a fourth major wave of protests against Donald Trump has taken place across the country. From an economic standpoint, there appear to be no strong reasons for dollar appreciation.

A sustained bearish trend in GBP/USD would require a strong and stable positive backdrop for the US dollar—something that is difficult to expect under the current circumstances. Geopolitics supported the dollar for two months, but this support is now fading. While it cannot be ruled out that the dollar may strengthen again due to geopolitical factors, there are currently no clear reasons to expect this.

News Calendar for the US and UK:

On April 17, the economic calendar contains no events. The news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" signaled potential growth, followed by a bullish imbalance and a confirmed buy signal. Price has swept liquidity from bullish swings on March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, but bears have still not taken control—another positive factor for the pound.

Given the current conditions, despite geopolitical uncertainty, I believe the upward movement will continue. The euro is also likely to continue rising. The target for the pound is the 2026 high. A reaction to imbalance 16 may cause a corrective pullback, while reactions to imbalances 18 and 19 could provide new buying opportunities.