21.04.202608:59 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 21. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro:

The test of the price at 1.1763 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros. However, the trade ended in a loss as the pair did not decline.

Yesterday's American session was marked by a recovery in risk appetite, allowing the euro to continue rising. Initial declines were triggered by the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which traditionally raises caution among investors and leads to a temporary outflow of capital from more volatile instruments. However, by midday, the situation began to transform in a more favorable direction. Reports indicated a softening of Tehran's position on the possibility of resuming negotiations.

Today, the first half of the day is expected to be filled with economic news. Particular attention will be focused on key indicators reflecting the level of business activity in the Eurozone, especially in its driving force—Germany. Significant data on the Eurozone business sentiment index from the respected ZEW research center is expected. This indicator is rightly considered a leading indicator, as it provides business forecasts of future economic trends.

Simultaneously, similar data will be presented for Germany. The ZEW business sentiment index for Germany, as well as the current situation index, will provide a more comprehensive picture of the real state of affairs in the leading European economy. An improvement in the business sentiment index could serve as a positive signal for the entire Eurozone, supporting the euro.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1785 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1813. At point 1.1813, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1769 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1785 and 1.1813 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches level 1.1769 (red line on the chart). The target will be level 1.1740, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pair may persist today within the observed correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1785 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1769 and 1.1740 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.