21.04.202614:20 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: DJIA (INDU): consolidation ahead of second round of talks

See also: InstaForex trading indicators for DJIA (INDU)

On Tuesday, the US stock market entered a state of tense anticipation. After Monday opened with a gap down, interrupting the recent winning streak of the indices, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed cautious pre-market gains, adding 0.5% and trading above 49700.0. Investors froze, awaiting two key events at once: a resumption of talks between the US and Iran, and Senate hearings to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

Geopolitical background: between hope and threats

On Monday, markets had to price a sharp escalation after a quiet weekend. Reports that US forces seized an Iranian cargo ship triggered threats of retaliation from Tehran and pushed tensions higher. This development hit prices immediately: Brent crude jumped above 100 per barrel again, and major Wall Street indices finished the day near the red zone.

On Tuesday, sentiment began to shift. Reports emerged that Tehran notified regional mediators of its readiness to send a delegation to talks in Islamabad. Vice President J. D. Vance is expected to participate in the second round of discussions this evening or tomorrow morning. That hope for a diplomatic solution prevents markets from collapsing and supports demand for risk assets, even though the truce officially expires on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, the positive impulse meets hard rhetoric. President Donald Trump said he considers it unlikely the current truce will be extended if an agreement does not materialize in the coming hours, and he threatened to keep the blockade of Iranian ports in place. Iran's chief negotiator, for his part, warned that his country will not negotiate "under the shadow of threats." That dynamic creates a fork of two extreme scenarios that keeps the index in a narrow range.

Key event of the day: Kevin Warsh confirmation hearings

While geopolitics dominates the headlines, the main intraday market event will be Senate Banking Committee hearings to consider Kevin Warsh's nomination to chair the Federal Reserve.

This event matters greatly for the stock market, which in recent weeks rose mainly on hopes for an imminent easing of interest rates. Warsh, known as a hawk, is nevertheless expected to stress his commitment to keeping the Fed independent from political pressure.

Economists outline several possible scenarios:

- Positive for the market. If Warsh clearly prioritizes fighting inflation and reaffirms the Fed's independence, that may stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence in the dollar.

- Negative for the market. If the hearings raise doubts about his competence or produce signs that he will yield to administration pressure to accelerate rate cuts at the expense of inflation control, that could trigger panic in the bond market and a renewed wave of volatility in equities.

Any hints about monetary policy in Warsh's remarks will matter more than routine macro releases.

Macroeconomic data: retail sales

At 12:30 GMT, US retail sales for March will be published. This first full report will allow assessment of how strongly the March spike in gasoline prices hit consumer demand.

Forecasts:

The consensus forecast implies an acceleration that reflects nominal spending increases driven by high inflation rather than a real rise in consumption. Any significant downside surprise could deepen concerns that the US consumer impulse has peaked.

Brief technical analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA or INDU on trading terminals) remains in a growth phase after an impressive rally.

Key DJIA levels:

- Key resistance: 50000.0 — psychological level. A breakout would open the way to new highs.

- Key support: 49000.0–48489.0 — last week's "war" lows and the 200-EMA on the 1-hour chart.

- Deep support: 47860.0–47420.0 — 50-EMA and 144-EMA on the daily chart.

The index recovered all losses incurred since the onset of the military conflict in February and trades near historical highs. Indicators on the daily chart — RSI, OsMA, Stochastic — show overbought conditions, yet the index holds above key moving averages, preserving chances for further gains.

Conclusion

Dow Jones Industrial Average retains upside potential, balancing hope for a diplomatic breakthrough against the reality of persistent military threats; investors prefer not to open large positions until the situation clarifies.

The key zone 48500.0–50000.0 will become the arena for a decisive battle in the coming hours. Holding above 49200.0 will preserve chances to test 50000.0, while a drop below 48400.0 will open the way to a deeper correction.

The market now responds more to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors than to corporate earnings, and even solid corporate reports cannot yet reverse the overall trend. 14:00 GMT, the Warsh hearing start, may become the catalyst that takes the market out of uncertainty.