22.04.202608:21 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on April 22

The euro, pound, and other risk assets quickly recouped their losses from yesterday against the US dollar today, for objectively valid reasons. Yes, yesterday's positive data on US retail sales, which rose by 1.7%, supported the US dollar, leading to a decline in several risk assets. All signs indicate that, despite the geopolitical situation, consumers in the US continue to spend, thereby supporting business activity and contributing to job creation. An increase in consumer spending directly affects company revenues, stimulates production, and drives investments. Therefore, positive dynamics in this sector invariably lead to optimism among traders, strengthening their confidence in the sustainability of economic growth.

However, yesterday's dollar growth was quickly reversed after Trump announced he was extending the truce with Iran, although the Islamic Republic noted that no one had asked him to do so.

Today, the focus for market participants in the first half of the day will be macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. Particularly interesting will be the figures for the consumer confidence index, which will provide insight into consumer sentiments and their willingness to spend in the near future. This indicator traditionally serves as an important benchmark for assessing the current state and future prospects of consumer demand, an essential driver of economic growth.

In parallel, the Bundesbank will publish its monthly report, which will include analytical materials and assessments of the economic situation in Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone. An additional factor that may influence market sentiment will be the speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. His comments on the current economic situation, inflationary trends, and the global geopolitical landscape will be closely monitored for signals about future European Central Bank steps.

As for the British pound, today's UK economic calendar also promises to be eventful. The key focus for traders will be inflation indicators—the consumer price index and the housing price index. These data are crucial for assessing the current state of the British economy and may significantly influence the Bank of England's future monetary policy. The consumer price index is a direct indicator of inflationary pressure. Its dynamics allow for an evaluation of how effectively the central bank is maintaining price stability amid the recent sharp rise in energy prices. High or rising CPI values may signal the need for tighter monetary policy measures.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in much higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy should be used.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.1760, which may lead to an increase in the euro to levels of 1.1790 and 1.1822;
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.1740, which may lead to a decline in the euro to levels of 1.1720 and 1.1700;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.3530, which may lead to an increase in the pound to levels of 1.3567 and 1.3596;
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.3506, which may lead to a decline in the pound to levels of 1.3477 and 1.3450;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of level 159.35, which may lead to an increase in the dollar to levels of 159.60 and 159.90;
• Sell on a breakout of level 159.13, which may lead to a decline in the dollar to levels of 158.87 and 158.57;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1768 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1734 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3532 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3499 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.7180 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.7155 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3663 on a return below this level;
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3645 on a return to this level;