23.04.202609:04 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Clearing the Strait of Hormuz May Take More Than 6 Months

Oil prices have risen for the fourth consecutive day as the US and Iran continue their struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz after failing to conduct a new round of peace negotiations.

The price of Brent crude oil approached the $103 per barrel mark after jumping nearly 13% over the last three trading sessions, while West Texas Intermediate was priced around $94. U.S. President Donald Trump stated yesterday that the ceasefire achieved on April 7 will remain in effect indefinitely while Washington awaits a new peace proposal from Iran.

The war has shaken energy markets since it began in late February, and the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a sharp decline in supplies from major Persian Gulf producers. The US has maintained a naval blockade on vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports, further applying pressure on oil prices.

Meanwhile, a new Pentagon assessment, presented during a briefing to the House Armed Services Committee, paints a worrying picture of the potential consequences of escalation in the Middle East. The statement that the operation to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months, with the likelihood of starting work only after the cessation of hostilities, suggests that disruptions in global trade flows and energy markets could last from one to one and a half years.

By taking actions that have led to the mining of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has effectively issued an ultimatum to the global community. Linking the start of demining operations to the end of the war creates a dangerous precedent, turning this strategic waterway into a hostage of regional conflicts. Such a position from Iran, reinforced by the seizure of commercial vessels, forces international forces, primarily the US and its allies, to seek complex and resource-intensive solutions.

The expectation of ending multilateral hostilities before technical operations can commence means that resolving the problem depends directly on resolving the conflicts themselves, which may take an indefinite amount of time. Thus, global trade and energy markets will face a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability, requiring governments and businesses to be flexible and adaptive.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow targeting $106.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break. The further target will be the area of $113.30. If oil prices decline, bears will attempt to take control of $92.50. If successful, breaking this range will deal a significant blow to the bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $86.67, with the prospect of reaching $81.37.