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The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility on Tuesday, showing no desire to move in either direction. The geopolitical background was contradictory, but the market has already lost interest in events in the Middle East. As we warned, there may be reactions from traders to individual events, but the dollar can no longer rely on growth after each missile launched towards Iran or vice versa. It became known yesterday that Tehran carried out several missile strikes on the UAE, and it remains unclear why Tehran is striking specifically at the UAE. Recall that the conflict reignited when American destroyers attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and were attacked. What does the UAE have to do with it? This situation further proves that only about 25% of reliable information regarding the situation in the Middle East is made available to the public. Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday; it is likely that the pair will show weak movements again today.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, no trading signals were generated. The price did not even approach key levels or zones during the day, so there was no basis for opening trades for beginner traders.
On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend remains, but the euro has been trading in a range for two weeks. The geopolitical situation is not improving and could worsen at any time. The world is learning to live without oil from the Middle East, with little hope for a truce between Iran and America. Therefore, it is no longer reasonable to expect a significant strengthening of the dollar. At most, the correction we have observed for three weeks will continue.
On Wednesday, beginner traders can open short positions with a target of 1.1655-1.1666 if the price bounces off the 1.1745-1.1754 area. New long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the 1.1745-1.1754 area, with a target of 1.1830-1.1837.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908. On Wednesday, only absolutely minor reports will be published in the Eurozone, and in the US, there will be only the ADP report on the labor market, which is also a secondary indicator. The market prefers to draw conclusions based on the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are key to long-term trading success.
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