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The EUR/USD currency pair showed growth on Friday similar to the decline on Thursday. As a reminder, on Thursday, there was another violation of the ceasefire between Iran and the US, which caused the dollar to rise sharply. However, on Friday, it became known that the ceasefire continues, as do the negotiations between Tehran and Washington. As a result, the pair quickly recovered. Additionally, important labor market and unemployment data in the US were published on Friday, which came in better than experts' forecasts. However, we did not see any growth in the US dollar, as the market once again ignored macroeconomic data, a trend we've been observing for at least two months straight. On Monday night, at the market opening, the US dollar rose again. Currently, no important information has come from the Middle East, but we have no doubt: if the dollar is rising, it means Tehran and Washington have failed to reach an agreement again. Or there has been a new escalation of the conflict.
On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was generated on Friday. During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair exceeded the range of 1.1745-1.1754 and moved in only one direction for almost the entire day. Thus, a single long position could have yielded a profit of about 15-20 pips (volatility was again low).
On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend remains, but the euro has been trading in a range for three weeks. The rise of the American currency has stopped, as the conflict in the Middle East is currently in a "quiet mode," but the euro is also slow to rise, as negotiations are progressing very slowly, there is no official information, and both sides regularly violate the ceasefire terms.
On Monday, novice traders may open short positions with a target of 1.1655-1.1666 if the price stabilizes below the 1.1745-1.1754 range. New long positions can be considered if the price bounces off the 1.1745-1.1754 area, with a target of 1.1830-1.1837.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Monday, the EU economic events calendar is completely empty, and in the US, there will be only a secondary report on home sales. Thus, today we can expect only geopolitical news. If there are no updates, volatility throughout the day will likely be low again.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are key to long-term trading success.
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