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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday completed its fifth consecutive rebound from the resistance level of 1.3632–1.3641 and began a new downward move toward the support level of 1.3513–1.3526, exactly as I had forecast. A rebound from the 1.3513–1.3526 support level would favor the British pound and a resumption of growth toward the 1.3632–1.3641 level. A consolidation below the 1.3513–1.3526 level would increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the 1.3428–1.3437 level.
The wave structure remains bullish. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break the previous low. Geopolitical factors had given bears nearly complete control of the market for two months, but the geopolitical backdrop has since shifted and now largely supports the bulls. At present, the ceasefire between Iran and the United States remains in place, but the situation is moving toward escalation and prolonged confrontation. It will be difficult for bulls to launch strong attacks in the coming weeks, and the bullish trend would be canceled below the 1.3513–1.3526 level.
We have already reviewed Monday's news background. Today, traders should focus on the US inflation report. The new trading day began with another decline in the pound, as bulls failed to break through the 1.3632–1.3641 level after five attempts. However, under the current circumstances, I do not believe the pound's decline will last long. Most likely, bulls have temporarily retreated from the market in order to gather momentum for breaking through this important resistance area. The inflation report due later today may help them accomplish that task.
Most likely, the US Consumer Price Index accelerated in April. However, for the dollar, it makes little difference whether inflation slows or accelerates. The Federal Reserve still does not intend to tighten monetary policy, so rising inflation would not necessarily increase the chances of interest rate hikes in 2026. At best for the dollar, rates may remain unchanged throughout 2026. Therefore, I do not expect the US currency to strengthen following the inflation release. Geopolitics remains the key theme for traders.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, which allows expectations for a full-fledged bullish trend. Consolidation above the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.3597 would support further growth toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3700. However, the chart setup on the hourly timeframe is currently more informative, and I recommend paying closer attention to it. No new emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 2,996, while short positions increased by 6,265. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 62,000 versus 126,000. For six consecutive weeks in February and March, non-commercial traders actively increased short positions and reduced longs, creating a significant imbalance between long and short exposure. Bears have dominated in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical environment.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but everything now depends not on economic indicators, Donald Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent developments suggest that a full ceasefire remains far away and the conflict could resume at any moment. In that case, the bears' advantage could strengthen even further.
US and UK Economic Calendar:
The economic calendar for May 12 contains only one entry, but it is an important one. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment may become apparent during the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling opportunities were possible after another rebound from the 1.3632–1.3641 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3513–1.3526. These trades may still be kept open today. A close below the 1.3513–1.3526 level would allow traders to maintain short positions with a target of 1.3428–1.3437.
Buying opportunities may arise from a rebound off the 1.3513–1.3526 level, targeting the 1.3632–1.3641 level.
Fibonacci retracement grids are based on 1.3866–1.3158 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.
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