13.05.202613:26 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 13th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.76 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by only 17 points.

Today, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April will be released. However, particular interest lies in the core PPI, which excludes the most volatile components such as food and energy prices. If the core PPI data exceeds forecasts, it could increase concerns about persistent inflationary pressure — especially after yesterday's consumer price index data. Conversely, lower readings could indicate slowing price dynamics, giving the Federal Reserve some room to breathe.

Additional intrigue will be added by speeches from FOMC members Susan M. Collins and Neel Kashkari, scheduled for the same day. Their statements may shed light on the Federal Reserve leadership's attitude toward existing inflation risks and economic prospects. Markets will closely watch for clues regarding future interest rate decisions, assessing how closely Fed officials' comments align with the latest economic data and overall market sentiment. The combination of April inflation statistics and Fed speeches creates conditions for potentially heightened volatility in the currency market. A hawkish Fed stance would obviously not favor the Japanese yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches the level of 157.91 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 158.25 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.25, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Growth in the pair today can be expected if strong U.S. data is released.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.69 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 157.91 and 158.25 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below the 157.69 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.39 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if weak U.S. data is released.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.91 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.69 and 157.39 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.