14.05.202609:09 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Oil Continues to Rise as the Shortage Remains Despite Potential Peace with Iran

Oil prices remained stable following the conclusion of the Beijing summit—the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping was positive, with both leaders emphasizing opportunities for cooperation; however, no specific agreements on energy that could shift the market emerged. Brent crude is trading around $106 per barrel, while WTI is around $101, comfortably holding above $100.

But the main news of the day did not come from Beijing; it came from the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to the IEA, the Iranian conflict has triggered record reductions in global oil reserves. Data shows that even if hostilities cease next month, the market will remain in serious deficit conditions until October. This is a crucial point: investors expecting a rapid price decline following a potential ceasefire may be miscalculating. The restoration of stocks is not a quick process, and several months of structural deficit mean that price pressure in the oil market will continue regardless of the outcome of the Middle Eastern conflict.

At the same time, the prospects of resolution remain murky. A formal ceasefire has been in effect since early April, but since then, there have been several rounds of escalation. The US and Iran appear to be making no significant progress toward addressing fundamental disagreements or toward a peace agreement. In other words, the market is living in a state of fragile status quo—just one serious incident could cause oil prices to surge again. Likely, after Trump's return from Beijing, pressure and threats towards Iran will resume.

Against this backdrop, the outcomes of the Beijing summit seem to be more of a neutral factor for the oil market. Trump and Xi exchanged optimistic statements and agreed to deepen cooperation; however, the Middle East received much less attention in the public agenda of the meeting compared to trade and Taiwan. It is worth noting that the market is currently paying more attention to the IEA than to diplomatic rhetoric: the numbers speak for themselves—the deficit will not go away, and oil recognizes this.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $106.80. This will allow them to target $113.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The further target will be around $120.00. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to take control of $100.40. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push oil down to a low of $92.50, with the potential to reach $86.60.