15.05.202606:41 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on May 15? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. The only noteworthy report is the US industrial production report, but it has very low odds of triggering a response from traders. The most important macroeconomic data under current circumstances may provoke a muted market reaction; other reports are unlikely to capture traders' attention. Geopolitics continues to dominate, with its influence on the market weakening, yet it remains the main driver of currency instruments.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing noteworthy among the fundamental events on Friday, but this is not necessary. We have been well aware of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve's plans. This week, it became known that the ECB may raise the key interest rate at the next meeting, the BoE will likely follow the ECB's lead, and the Fed will wait until the fourth quarter to assess inflation and make a decision. Thus, if we are to expect any policy tightening in the near future, it will only come from European central banks. This factor should have supported the euro and the pound, yet the market continues to trade primarily on geopolitical factors.

The geopolitical backdrop has begun to change, but unfortunately, words still convey one message while facts tell another. Over the past two weeks, the parties have violated the ceasefire three times, and another round of negotiations has collapsed with a bang. Currently, the negotiations are on pause, and Donald Trump intends to continue the conflict with Iran. Therefore, there is no chance of immediate unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz or of resolving the conflict.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue their corrective trends. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3380-1.3386. Traders' sentiment is currently influenced solely by the geopolitical backdrop. The absence of news is more likely to be bad than good.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.