18.05.202608:35 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 18. Forex Trade Analysis

Trade Analysis and Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3377 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test at 1.3377 triggered Scenario #2 for selling the pound, resulting in a decline of more than 50 pips.

The pound is under pressure, unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, while the dollar remains in demand as the situation in the Middle East worsens. In the event of actions—specifically, new US strikes against Iran—the dollar is likely to strengthen even further. Geopolitical tension traditionally stimulates demand for the US dollar as a "safe haven" currency that investors prefer during periods of uncertainty and heightened risks.

Today promises to be relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic data coming from the UK, which may maintain pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The first half of the day will pass with practically no significant data sets that could meaningfully influence market participants' sentiments. Attention will shift to the speeches of two members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee: Kathryn L. Mann and Megan Greene.

Speeches from central bank representatives are always a valuable source of information for traders. Through such remarks, bankers often convey their views on the current economic situation, inflation expectations, and, of course, the prospects for future monetary policy. In the absence of official statistical reports, even the slightest statement from MPC members can act as a catalyst for market movements.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3342 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3378 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3378, I will exit the long positions and open short positions back in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pound growth can only be expected following good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3310 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3342 and 1.3378.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.3310 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3256 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3342 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3310 and 1.3256.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.