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The GBP/USD pair also traded lower on Tuesday, but with significantly less intensity than the EUR/USD pair. The British pound experienced a decline last week that it likely did not deserve. Geopolitics worsened, hawkish expectations regarding the Bank of England's monetary policy evaporated, and the political crisis in the UK provided additional reasons for traders to sell the pound. However, all these factors have already been priced in! For instance, this week it has become known that Washington is willing to make some concessions in negotiations with Tehran. Donald Trump postponed new strikes on Iran and even stated that negotiations are currently underway, which may lead to the signing of a deal. Of course, trusting Trump can be risky, but the geopolitical backdrop this week is more positive than it was last week. Thus, we believe that the negative factors for the British currency have already been accounted for. A British inflation report is set to be released in just a couple of hours, which could provoke market movements.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, two buy signals were generated. During the European and American sessions, the price bounced off the 1.3380-1.3386 area twice, allowing novice traders to open at least one long position. So far, there hasn't been a profit on this trade, but growth in the British currency can be expected throughout the day.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues its downward trend, having succumbed to geopolitical pressure last week. However, without a resumption of full-scale war in the Middle East, the dollar cannot expect to see growth like it did in February and March. Individual events may still provoke a strengthening, but we do not believe the market will enter a new wave of risk aversion.
On Wednesday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.3319-1.3331 if the price consolidates below this area. A third bounce from the area of 1.3380-1.3386 will allow for the opening of long positions targeting 1.3456-1.3476.
On the 5-minute timeframe, traders can currently focus on the levels: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751. Today, the most important inflation report for April will be released in the UK, and the reaction to it could be significant. The inflation figures will influence the Bank of England's actions at its next meeting. In the U.S., only the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be published today, which is considered a formal event.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are key to long-term trading success.
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