25.05.202610:31 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: ARMA law and how it relates to US strategic Bitcoin reserve

While the crypto market shows no clear direction, trading sideways, a new bipartisan bill has been introduced in the US Congress that could fundamentally change the government's approach to its crypto holdings.

Alaska Republican Nick Begich and Maine Democrat Jared Golden jointly submitted the "American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026" (ARMA), which envisages the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a separate custody for other digital assets under the Treasury Department. The bill's main and most consequential provision is a mandatory lockup of all Bitcoin in the reserve for a minimum of 20 years. During that period, the government would be strictly prohibited from selling, exchanging, auctioning or otherwise disposing of the assets for any reason. Only after the lockup expires could the Treasury Secretary recommend sales — and even then, no more than 10% of the reserve every two years.

The bill serves as a legislative codification of the executive order signed by President Trump in 2025. The reserve is planned to be formed primarily from Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies already held by the state — i.e., assets seized in criminal and civil proceedings. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in January that the approach would be: first, stop selling seized assets, then channel them into the reserve. Current estimates place the US government's aggregate cryptocurrency holdings at roughly $26 billion.

Unlike earlier initiatives, ARMA does not set a specific target size for the reserve. Instead, the Treasury and Commerce Departments are tasked with exploring budget-neutral ways to fund the reserve through conversion of other digital assets, revaluation of gold certificates, customs duty revenues, and partnerships with state governments. The bill also requires all federal agencies to fully disclose, within 60 days of enactment, information about digital assets under their control, and mandates quarterly public reports on the reserve as well as an independent audit.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to the $78,400 level, which would open a direct path to $80,100, and from there, $81,700 is within reach; surpassing that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In the event of a decline, I expect buyers at $76,500. A move back below that area could quickly send BTC down to around $74,700. The furthest target would be the $73,100 area.

Ethereum

A clear close above the $2,146 level would open a direct path to $2,222. The furthest target would be the high near $2,291; surpassing it would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In the event of a drop, I expect buyers at $2,084. A move back below that area could quickly send ETH down to around $1,997. The furthest target would be the $1,911 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.