08.06.202608:03 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Why Does Gold Continue to Decline?

Gold continues to fall, down 0.5% to around $4,308 per ounce. Last week, the metal lost nearly 5%, completely erasing the gains made since the beginning of the year. Since the start of the war at the end of February, gold has fallen more than 18%, and a bottom is not yet in sight.

A new escalation added further pressure. Over the weekend, the Israel Defense Forces announced strikes on military targets in western and central Iran in response to intercepted Iranian missiles. This occurred despite Trump's direct call for Netanyahu to refrain from escalating tensions — the American president is clearly losing leverage over the course of the conflict. A military advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader characterized the Sunday missile strike on Israel as a warning to stop attacks in Lebanon. It is evident that the Lebanese track is again becoming a key sticking point blocking a broader agreement between Washington and Tehran.

For gold, the issue is not geopolitics per se — but rather how it influences interest rates. The closed strait keeps oil prices high, high oil prices drive inflation, and inflation pushes central banks toward tightening. This mechanism has been the main pressure on the metal since the war began. Friday's U.S. employment data further intensified this pressure: a 172,000 increase in jobs, against a forecast of 85,000, pushed bond yields up and strengthened the dollar. Markets are already fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed by the end of the year.

In this context, the activity of the People's Bank of China is noteworthy. In May, the central bank increased its gold reserves by approximately 10 tons — the largest monthly volume since 2024, extending the series of purchases to 19 consecutive months. This is a structural bullish factor that, while not able to overturn the prevailing logic of rates and inflation, could become an important catalyst for recovery should the monetary cycle reverse.

Silver decreased by 0.4% to $67.53, following a nearly 10% drop last week. Platinum is also declining, while palladium has changed little.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,372. This will allow them to target $4,432, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $4,481 area. In the case of a drop in gold, bears will attempt to take control at $4,304. If successful, breaking the range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4,249, with the potential to reach $4,186.