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The price test at 160.01 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 160.35.
The sharp increase in the number of employed persons in the U.S. non-farm sector, exceeding analysts' forecasts by 172,000, became a catalyst for significant changes in global financial markets, including in the USD/JPY pair. One of the most notable consequences was the fall of the Japanese yen. This event underscores the global financial system's dependence on American macroeconomic indicators. The increase in employment in the U.S. not only reflects the strength of the American economy but also directly affects the dynamics of other currencies, prompting central banks worldwide to closely monitor the situation and adapt their policies.
But do not rush to buy USD/JPY. It is important to remember the potential for currency interventions, which the Bank of Japan is likely to resort to soon, as it has acted multiple times around 160 yen per dollar.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 160.42 (green line on the chart), with a target of 160.62 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 160.62, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.31, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upwards. Growth can be expected at the opposite levels of 160.42 and 160.62.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the level of 160.31 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 160.04, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment, needing only any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decrease from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.42, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downwards. A decrease can be expected to the opposite levels of 160.31 and 160.04.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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