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The price test at 1.3404 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test at 1.3404 occurred while the MACD was in the overbought area, prompting the implementation of scenario #2 to sell the pound. As a result, the pair decreased by 40 pips.
Another wave of military attacks from the US and Iran has put pressure on risk assets, which, in turn, prompted purchases of the US dollar. The geopolitical tension in the Persian Gulf will inevitably continue to affect global financial markets, creating uncertainty and prompting traders to seek refuge in safe-haven assets. The British pound, as the currency of a country whose economy is closely tied to international trade and energy resources, is highly susceptible to global events.
Today, the lack of fresh data on economic activity in the UK will not help the pound rise. Without clear signals of growth or stabilization in the British economy, traders struggle to identify substantial arguments for opening long positions on the GBP/USD pair. As is known, the currency market reacts sensitively to macroeconomic indicators, and their scarcity creates uncertainty, which typically weighs on risk assets, including the pound.
In this situation, the focus naturally shifts to geopolitical risks, which are currently concentrated in the Middle East. Any escalation of tensions in this region can trigger a new flight of investors from risks, leading to a strengthening of safe-haven assets.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3389 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3409 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3409, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). One can only expect growth in the pound today within the framework of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3377, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3389 and 1.3409.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level at 1.3377 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3352, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3389, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.3377 and 1.3352.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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