11.06.202610:59 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: US strikes Iran for second day running

The US dollar strengthened on news that the United States continued striking Iran. Yesterday, US Central Command reported a new wave of additional strikes — Marine Corps, Air Force, and Navy forces struck Iranian surveillance systems, air?defense sites, and communications networks. The operation ended roughly four hours after it began.

Immediately after, Trump said he had personally spoken with senior Iranian officials — who asked for the bombing to stop. He promised the strikes would end soon, but added: if Iranian leaders do not sign an agreement tomorrow, the US will strike again.

This is already the second consecutive round of attacks — the first followed the downing of a US Apache helicopter on Tuesday. Tehran denies it has been in direct talks with the American president.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has sharply deteriorated. Iranian state TV announced a full closure of the strait to all types of vessels — commercial, oil and gas — citing the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters. The IRGC reported attacks on two ships attempting to transit. US Central Command denied the strait had been closed, saying commercial vessels continue to pass through. Both sides insist on their version of events — and the market does not know whom to believe.

An important nuance often lost behind the headlines: Trump said the US has already supported the transit of more than 200 merchant vessels and the movement of over 100 million barrels of oil through the strait — and declared that the strait is now controlled by the United States, not Iran. Satellite data and testimony from shipping executives do show a gradual revival of traffic, including so-called shadow transits with transponders switched off. Nevertheless, daily transits remain well below the pre-war average of 135 ships per day.

For markets, this is a classic war-of-narratives scenario. But so far traders are leaning toward the US dollar, since the latest US labor and inflation data point to the need for a firmer Federal Reserve stance.

Technical outlook

EUR/USD

Buyers need to reclaim 1.1555 to target a test of 1.1580. From there, a push to 1.1600 is possible, but doing so without support from major players will be difficult. The farther target is 1.1625. On the downside, I expect significant buying only around 1.1530; if no buyers appear, wait for a new low at 1.1505 or consider longs from 1.1480.

GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3390 to aim for 1.3415, above which a further move will be challenging. The farther target is around 1.3440. On the downside, bears will try to gain control below 1.3360; if they succeed, a breakout would hit bulls hard and push GBP/USD toward 1.3330 with a prospect of reaching 1.3299.