19.06.202612:30 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on June 19th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

Due to low market volatility, none of the levels outlined in my analysis were tested.

It is unlikely that strong price movements will occur in the second half of the day. Without support from the Bank of Japan in the form of currency intervention, a significant decline in USD/JPY is unlikely. However, speculative upward movements are possible, especially given the U.S. bank holiday and the absence of important economic data. In any case, caution is required when trading USD/JPY long positions, as regulatory intervention may occur at any time.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches the 161.40 level (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 161.75 (thick green line on the chart). At 161.75, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a reversal of 30–35 points). A rise in the pair is possible today, but the potential remains limited. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 161.23 while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward 161.40 and 161.75 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 161.23 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 160.85, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Downward pressure on the pair is likely to return only in the event of central bank intervention. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 161.40 while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 161.23 and 160.85 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price level for taking profit or manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price level for taking profit or manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.