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GBP/USD generally continues to move lower. On Monday, bulls briefly found a reason for optimism when the British pound gained following reports of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation. However, Monday gave way to Tuesday, and market reality quickly returned. At present, that reality is that the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen regardless of circumstances.
The Federal Reserve adopted a rather unexpected stance a week ago, but an entire week has already passed. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has come to an end, the Strait of Hormuz is open—or could be fully reopened in the near future—and oil prices have already returned close to their pre-conflict levels. None of these factors have had any meaningful impact on traders or on the dollar.
Moreover, the decline that began last Wednesday has been so strong that price has not even managed to retrace into the nearest bearish imbalance (Imbalance 21), which would normally provide traders with an opportunity to open short positions. The situation is somewhat paradoxical: on the one hand, there is a strong trend; on the other hand, there are no clear trading signals and no definitive understanding of what is driving that trend. Therefore, I would not be concerned about missing short-selling opportunities. The current move is not entirely clear to me, it could end at any moment, and there are currently no clear sell signals, just as there are no buy signals.
The U.S. dollar tends to perform better during periods of geopolitical tension than either the euro or the pound. Therefore, both European currencies may still receive support if risk appetite continues to improve. At present, the market remains cautious regarding the agreement between Iran and the United States and is waiting for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is not a simple task in itself. Nevertheless, it can now be said that the war has officially ended, at least for the time being.
The Federal Reserve triggered a strong rally in the U.S. dollar, but I still do not fully understand what continues to fuel bearish pressure on GBP/USD. In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the sharp declines seen in the pair this year.
From a chart perspective, a new bearish imbalance (Imbalance 21) formed last week. Consequently, traders may look for market reactions to this pattern as a basis for opening short positions. It is also worth noting the proximity of the March 31 swing low, which could become a target for liquidity collection. If that occurs, bulls may gain enough supporting factors to launch a counterattack. For now, however, the short-term technical picture remains bearish.
Tuesday's economic backdrop also favored the bears. June PMI data from the United Kingdom fell short of expectations. The Services PMI declined from 49.3 to 48.7, while the Manufacturing PMI slipped from 53.9 to 53.1. In both cases, traders had expected significantly stronger readings.
The broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect U.S. dollar weakness over the long term. Neither the conflict involving Iran and the United States nor the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 has changed that view. Geopolitical developments temporarily reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the overall environment remains less favorable for the U.S. currency.
The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in 2026, which would support the dollar. However, it is important to remember that tighter monetary policy would also slow the U.S. economy. Furthermore, Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump as Chair of the FOMC not to aggressively raise interest rates. In my view, any policy tightening, if implemented, would likely be temporary—designed to bring inflation down quickly before the Federal Reserve eventually returns to a more accommodative policy stance.
Therefore, I believe any dollar appreciation is likely to be temporary. Nevertheless, traders should not ignore the current chart structure, which still points to a high probability of further downside in GBP/USD over the coming weeks. If the technical picture shifts back to bullish, both the fundamental and technical outlooks would then point in the same direction.
Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom
The economic calendar for June 24 contains only one secondary event. Therefore, the influence of economic data on market sentiment on Wednesday is expected to be minimal.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice
The long-term outlook for GBP/USD remains bullish, but at present the only active pattern is the bearish Imbalance 21. Therefore, traders can currently focus only on potential reactions to this pattern and the possibility of a new decline if they wish to identify new trading opportunities.
If this pattern generates a new sell signal, the British pound could decline toward 1.3007, the level that would invalidate the broader bullish trend structure. The main argument in favor of the bulls at the moment is the proximity of the 1.3158 low, which may serve as a liquidity target. However, that liquidity has not yet been taken.
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