25.06.202600:56 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: WTI. Price Analysis. Forecast. Increased Maritime Traffic Through the Strait of Hormuz Restores Oil Supply Volumes

On Wednesday, the price of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continued its significant decline, dropping by 4.40% in a day to the round level of $70.00. Such prices were last observed in March of this year.

This benchmark oil grade has virtually lost its "geopolitical risk premium" that arose from the conflict between Israel and Iran and is striving to return to pre-conflict levels (approximately $67).

Selling pressure has intensified amid easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy exports from Persian Gulf nations. Shipping data indicate an increase in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a gradual normalization of trade flows, although traffic intensity remains below levels seen prior to the conflict.

Simultaneously, diplomatic efforts continue to define the future status of the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar and Oman have proposed an initiative to unite the efforts of Iran, the Arab Gulf states, and Iraq to establish a long-term management mechanism for this strategically vital waterway. It is expected that the Gulf states will insist on the principle of freedom of navigation, while Tehran may propose introducing fees related to security, navigation, and environmental protection.

Bearish sentiment in the market is reinforced by the U.S. decision to grant a temporary 60-day permit allowing international buyers and American refiners to resume purchases of Iranian crude oil. This move has raised expectations for an increase in global oil supply in the coming weeks.

However, some analysts believe that the scale of the current sell-off may be excessive. Experts at ING point out that oil volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below historical levels before the conflict and emphasize that the oil market continues to show signs of supply shortages, despite improvements in logistical conditions. Additionally, analysts at TD Securities note that in recent weeks, the volume of oil stored on tankers in the Gulf of Mexico has significantly decreased, which may limit the ability to sustain current supply levels over the long term.

Moreover, investors need to closely monitor the progress of negotiations between Washington and Tehran regarding inspections of nuclear facilities. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Iran agreed to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to return; however, Iranian officials noted that the timing of this step has yet to be determined, leaving uncertainty about the stability of the agreements reached.

From a technical perspective, prices have fallen below the important 200-day SMA, which favors bears. Oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold territory, indicating a possible correction. The 200-day SMA now serves as the nearest resistance, while price support is found at the round level of SMA 69.00.