25.06.202606:01 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Watch for on June 25? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, but some of them will be interesting. In particular, we can highlight the first-quarter GDP report (third estimate) and U.S. durable goods orders. However, it is important to note that the market has been ignoring most macroeconomic data for several months now, and over the last week, it has been moving in an illogical way, disconnected from fundamentals and geopolitics. Thus, it is unlikely that today's reports will affect market sentiment.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, we can note the speeches of European Central Bank representatives Piero Cipollone and Philip Lane, as well as Federal Reserve members Austan Goolsbee and John Williams. However, let's remember that two weeks ago, the ECB raised rates for the first time in three years, while the Bank of England and the Fed met last week without making any important decisions. Given the short time that has passed, it is unlikely that the tone of central bank representatives has changed enough for us to hear anything new in their speeches.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. have signed an agreement remotely, but too many important issues remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear issue" which is not even mentioned in the current text of the agreement. This is precisely the problem that sparked the war and could lead to its resumption at any moment. Negotiations over the nuclear deal began over the weekend, and initial progress was achieved. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Iran, unblocked access to its assets, and agreed on a plan for Iran's recovery. Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices have dropped to levels seen in January-February.

General Conclusions:

During the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs may start to correct after significant declines, but if the declines continue, we would not be surprised. The euro can be traded from the 1.1354-1.1363 area, while the British pound can be traded from the 1.3175-1.3180 area. The market has been unjustly buying the U.S. dollar in recent days, which may be a trap set by market makers for bears.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.