29.06.202605:46 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Focus on June 29? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday, aside from a few minor reports. In recent months, the market has reacted exclusively to the most important economic data, and even then, selectively. Therefore, today will clearly be a day of rest. Volatility throughout the day may be low, and both the euro and the British pound will certainly make another attempt to correct slightly.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Monday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech can be highlighted. However, we remind you that two weeks ago, the ECB held a meeting during which it raised rates for the first time in three years. However, this event went unnoticed by the market, which preferred to focus on the potential increase in the Fed's key rate. Whether there will be a tightening of policy in the US remains an open question, but the market now believes so while ignoring all other factors.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the US signed an agreement remotely, but too many important issues remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear issue," the war between Lebanon and Israel, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Theoretically, the market may fear a resumption of full-scale warfare; however, this is clearly not a sufficient factor to sustain dollar demand. After all, Tehran and Washington are still on the tracks leading to peace, and negotiations are ongoing. Although no one expects them to be quick and easy.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to correct after a significant drop, with market activity likely to be low throughout the day. The euro can be traded from the range of 1.1354-1.1363, while the British pound can be traded from the range of 1.3175-1.3180. The market has been irrationally buying the US dollar over the last week, which could be a long-term trap for bears. Today, it is unlikely that one can expect profits exceeding 25-30 pips on any trade.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.