01.07.202609:03 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 1. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1410 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.

The dollar strengthened in response to news that US consumer confidence rose in June. While indicators related to current conditions slightly decreased, the expectations component showed a notable increase. This indicates that consumers, despite ongoing concerns about employment, generally remain optimistic about future prospects. The decrease in gasoline prices has certainly played a key role in this positive shift.

Today's economic calendar is quite busy, and traders monitoring the EUR/USD pair should be extremely cautious. The release of PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) statistics for the manufacturing sector in Germany, Italy, and then the Eurozone as a whole is of paramount importance. These indicators are among the most timely indicators of the state of the economy, reflecting manufacturers' sentiment, new order volumes, and employment levels. Strong data could serve as a positive signal for the euro, while weak data could increase concerns about slowing growth.

Equally important will be the publication of the Eurozone consumer price index (CPI). Inflation remains a key factor influencing the European Central Bank's monetary policy. If the CPI data show an acceleration in inflation trends, it may prompt the ECB to adopt a more hawkish tone regarding further rate hikes. Undoubtedly, the highlight of the day will be the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. She is expected to comment on today's data and provide a serious assessment, outlining future interest rate prospects.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1420 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1455. At around 1.1455, I plan to exit the market and sell euros, expecting a 30-35 pip move from the entry point. You can only count on the euro's growth today after positive reports from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1402 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposing levels of 1.1420 and 1.1455 is expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1402 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1375, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return if there is poor performance. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1420 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 1.1402 and 1.1375 is expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.