08.07.202609:20 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 8. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1436 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1436 prompted the implementation of Scenario No. 2 to sell the euro, resulting in a 15-pip decline in the pair.

The escalation in the Middle East has restored the dollar's status as a safe haven. Washington responded with military strikes to Iran's attack on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which was enough to trigger a wave of demand for safe-haven assets. Amid rising concerns, the euro is conceding to the dollar. Investors are shifting toward more liquid and reliable assets, and the EUR/USD pair is declining as the market prices in heightened geopolitical risks. Additionally, the prospect of rising energy prices poses a further negative for the euro, as the Eurozone is particularly sensitive due to its high dependence on fuel imports.

Today, euro buyers have little to rely on, as no significant fundamental data are scheduled. Only a speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is expected, who has recently adopted a more cautious stance on future rate hikes. However, the lack of clear economic data may create increased volatility in the currency market, so any shift in rhetoric from European Central Bank representatives could have a substantial impact on the euro's exchange rate.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy euros today if the price reaches around 1.1433 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1460. At 1.1460, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. The expectation of the euro rising today relies on a strong position from Nagel. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1412 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. You can expect growth towards opposing levels 1.1433 and 1.1460.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros today after breaking the 1.1412 level (red line on the chart). The target will be level 1.1383, where I intend to exit from short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return if the European Central Bank delivers dovish rhetoric. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1433 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. You can expect a decrease towards opposing levels 1.1412 and 1.1383.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.