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Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with moderate intraday gains on Monday, supported by a softer US dollar.
However, there is no sign yet of an accelerating rally, so bullish market participants should remain cautious. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide meaningful support, but expectations for tighter US monetary policy cap more aggressive dollar selling and, at the same time, limit gold's upside potential.
The situation in the Middle East still weighs heavily on investor sentiment. The US reported a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran following reports of another US service member's death in Iraq, and President Donald Trump framed the actions as honoring fallen American troops. US Central Command said the strikes targeted Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran employed ballistic missiles and drones in unilateral strikes against US allies in the region, and Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq reported a new wave of attacks, increasing the risk of a broader regional conflict and forcing markets to price in an additional geopolitical risk premium.
US actions against Iranian oil infrastructure and maritime shipments add further tension. Reports indicate Washington has resumed a naval blockade of Iranian ports and restricted a previously issued license to sell oil. At the same time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is tightening control over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and attempting to constrain traffic, raising risks to global energy supplies. As a result, oil is rising to levels not seen since June 12, boosting inflation expectations and strengthening assumptions about a possible Fed rate hike in 2026.
Against this backdrop, comments from Federal Reserve officials remain an important driver for the US dollar. On Friday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that higher rates may be required to contain persistent inflation, supporting expectations for a stronger dollar and adding another headwind for gold.
As the US economic calendar lacks major economic reports on Monday, the market will likely be driven mainly by newsflow, so it is premature to conclude that XAU/USD has formed a short-term bottom until a sustained buying impulse appears.
Speeches by influential FOMC members can temporarily heighten dollar volatility, while new geopolitical developments are likely to continue creating short?term trading opportunities in gold.
From a technical viewpoint, the picture remains bearish. The precious metal is still trading below the 200-day simple moving average near $4,500. Oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage. The instrument finds support at $3,960 and in the area of the year's low, while the nearest resistance is the 20-day SMA.
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