23.07.202606:33 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on July 23? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Thursday. If we are talking about reports that have at least a theoretical chance of being priced in. Today in the US, a report on jobless claims will be released, which is usually ignored by traders even in normal times, as it is considered secondary. There are no significant reports scheduled today in the Eurozone, Germany, or the US.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, the European Central Bank meeting is notable, but it may also be ignored by the market. It is worth recalling that a month and a half ago, the ECB was the first among major central banks to begin tightening monetary policy amid rising inflation, a fact that the market simply overlooked. Instead, it eagerly priced in the hypothetical rate hike from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, which might not even happen. Today, the ECB is highly likely (90% probability) to keep rates unchanged, so traders will again have nothing to react to. Christine Lagarde's speech, which rarely offers any promises or hints at future changes in monetary policy, may also not change anything.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to shift in an unfavorable direction. Another ceasefire has been broken, and the US and Iran have resumed hostilities. No negotiations are currently taking place. Donald Trump is preparing for new strikes against Iran, while Tehran is poised to respond by blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at any moment. The Yemeni Houthis have already announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia, likely anticipating a blockade of the Red Sea. The situation is only intensifying over time, provoking a new rise in oil prices.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, the European currency will continue to move within the sideways channel, while the British pound remains within a downward trend. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1363-1.1377 or from the area of 1.1461-1.1466, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3380-1.3386. Volatility for both currency pairs may remain low.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.