24.07.202600:27 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/GBP. Price Analysis. Forecast. The Euro Falls Against the British Pound

The euro is under pressure against the British pound as traders analyze the latest statement from the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding monetary policy. As of the writing, EUR/GBP was around 0.8532, below the 20-day SMA.

The ECB has left three key interest rates unchanged: the deposit rate at 2.25%, the main refinancing rate at 2.40%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.65%, following a 25 basis point increase in June.

In its monetary policy statement, the Governing Council reaffirmed its commitment to stabilizing inflation at a medium-term target level of 2%. However, it also noted that uncertainty remains high and that the full impact of the recent energy shock has not yet fully manifested.

The ECB indicated that it is closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as any indirect and secondary effects, confirming that future decisions on interest rates will depend on the assessment of inflation prospects and accompanying risks.

After the announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that inflation in the energy sector is likely to keep overall inflation significantly above the ECB's target level through the first half of 2027, after which a decline is expected. She mentioned that "the risks to growth are skewed to the downside," while "the risks to inflation are skewed to the upside," adding that the conflict in the Middle East is a "major source of uncertainty."

Against the backdrop of new escalations in the Middle East and a sharp rise in oil prices, inflation may accelerate after the decline in June, increasing the likelihood of another rate hike from the ECB. Traders are already fully pricing in a rate increase at the September meeting.

At the same time, markets are raising their expectations for a rate hike from the Bank of England amid persistent inflationary pressure. However, the British pound is receiving only slight support, as the markets focus on the changing political landscape with a new Prime Minister and the uncertainty surrounding the government's fiscal plans.

From a technical perspective, the oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage in the market. The bulls need to first overcome the 20-day SMA to gain some strength for further growth.

The table below shows the percentage change of the euro against major currencies on Thursday. The euro demonstrated the greatest strength against the New Zealand dollar.