28.07.202604:20 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD Review. July 28. The Fall of the Pound Looks Like a Ramp-Up Before Takeoff

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced both ups and downs on Monday. Initially, the market cheerfully sold off the dollar, anticipating another resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. Then it removed the rose-colored glasses and realized that the cessation of hostilities in the Middle East was not due to a fervent desire by Tehran and Washington to make a deal. The military actions themselves consume a lot of resources, and the US Congress, for example, is not eager to approve additional spending by Donald Trump on this pointless war. Simply put, it all comes down to money and oil. US revenues from energy sales have increased since the start of the war in the Middle East, but while additional money in the budget is good, it's government money, not Trump's personal finances. This week, economists calculated that in just one and a half years of presidency, Trump has earned more than in the previous 60 years of business. Thus, power in the US allows Trump to increase his capital by selling tokens, dinners with him, overpriced tickets to his golf club, and so on. Business is business—nothing personal.

Returning to the conflict in the Middle East: since revenues from oil and gas sales are American revenues, and Trump does not earn anything from this war, but can potentially lose elections in Congress, it is the US president who is interested in ending the war. But on terms favorable to the White House, not Tehran. Tehran understands perfectly well the position Trump is in and is not ready to make any concessions. Simply put, Iran knows that the initiative in negotiations is on its side. It is setting the parameters for the future agreement, or it is ready to abandon it completely.

Why should Iran accept Trump's ultimatums now, when the Republicans might lose at least the House of Representatives in a few months, and then the Democrats will start blocking any decisions from the US president? After all, the Democrats hate Trump about as much as Iran does. In other words, Iran can afford to wait until the congressional elections; it has no hurry. It is Trump who needs to hurry, and based on this, the US president may make numerous decisions that will raise hair on the back of your neck. The markets understand that there are no limits for the White House leader, so the longer Iran resists an agreement and negotiations, the tougher Trump's new steps may be. Therefore, the dollar is not in a hurry to fall.

Nonetheless, the technical picture for GBP/USD looks like the beginning of a new growth phase for the British currency. On the daily timeframe, it is clear that the recent drop is simply a correction. Once the correction is over, a new wave of growth will begin. Consequently, technically, we can expect the British pound to rise in the coming weeks above the 1.3600 level. For this, even strong fundamental reasons are not needed, as the weekly timeframe retains a year-long flat. Inside the flat, movements are random.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 68 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Thus, on Tuesday, July 28, we expect movement within a range limited by 1.3233 and 1.3368. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has formed a bearish divergence and has entered the overbought area—the downward correction has begun.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3306

S2 – 1.3245

S3 – 1.3184

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3367

R2 – 1.3428

R3 – 1.3489

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect growth from the American currency in the long term. The year 2026 is shaping up to be super positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every fairy tale comes to an end. However, the weekly timeframe shows a flat between the levels of 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend, which allows us to expect a continuation of growth for the British currency in the medium term. Long positions with targets at 1.3428 and 1.3489 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be pursued with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3233.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it means the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator — its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.