04.08.202605:44 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on August 4? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are relatively few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Tuesday. The only notable report is the JOLTs report on open job vacancies in the U.S. for June. However, this report is no longer particularly relevant, as it is two months delayed. The JOLTs report may prompt a slight market reaction, but it is unlikely to affect the current technical picture. The correction may continue in both currency pairs for several days. Key reports will be released on Friday.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing to highlight among the fundamental events on Tuesday. There are no important speeches or events planned for today. However, there is plenty for traders to ponder. Recall that last week, inflation reports from the Eurozone were released, which maintained a relatively high probability of a second key rate hike by the European Central Bank. At the same time, the U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter, and the Federal Reserve did not show a genuine and strong desire to raise the key rate in the near future. Thus, the U.S. dollar, which the market has been buying up in recent months for various reasons, is losing market support.

The geopolitical backdrop continues to leave much to be desired. Another ceasefire has been violated, the conflict has resumed, and the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange blows regularly, while negotiations are not taking place. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, Yemeni Houthis have declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia, and Tehran has threatened to completely close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington continues to exert pressure on it. The situation is not improving, which is causing persistently high oil prices. In turn, these prices lead to renewed acceleration in inflation.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue their correction, and volatility may again be weak today. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3456-1.3476. The most significant events are scheduled for Friday this week.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.