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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1551, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and declined toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1507. A rebound from the 1.1507 level today would favor the euro and support a resumption of the upward move toward 1.1551. Consolidation below the 1.1507 level would allow traders to expect a continued decline toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 50.0% at 1.1472.
The wave structure on the hourly chart has turned bullish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, but the latest upward wave also broke above the previous high. The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently negative, as Iran and the United States continue their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while no negotiations are currently taking place. Traders had been expecting support from the Federal Reserve for about a month, but those hopes were not fulfilled last week. After a prolonged pause, the bulls have resumed their advance.
Monday's news flow gave the U.S. dollar a temporary reprieve. This week, the outlook for the U.S. currency could develop in different ways, as much will depend on the labor market data. If the figures come in strong (above expectations), the Federal Reserve will have one less concern, and any decision to tighten monetary policy will depend only on inflation and the FOMC's willingness to raise interest rates. If the labor market data prove weak, the Fed will have an additional challenge to address. On Monday, the first key report of the week supported the bears. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in above market expectations, allowing the U.S. dollar to improve its position slightly. Meanwhile, Germany's retail sales report disappointed, while the second estimates of the S&P Global PMIs attracted little market attention. As a result, the U.S. dollar started the new week on a stronger footing, but it now faces a series of important tests.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the downward trend channel, suggesting not just a bullish attempt but the beginning of a sustained bullish trend. Consolidation above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1514 would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1578. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 15,490 long positions and opened 15,691 short positions. Over the seven weeks spanning February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared because of the war involving Iran, while over the past eighteen weeks the balance has gradually stabilized amid a fragile ceasefire and market hopes that the conflict would come to an end. Speculative traders now hold a total of 205,000 long positions and 277,000 short positions. The bears have once again regained the upper hand.
Overall, from a long-term perspective, major market participants remain interested in the euro. At the same time, global events—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market remains focused on developments in the Middle East, where the conflict repeatedly appears to subside before escalating again. The market initially ignored the ceasefire and later paid little attention to the renewed outbreak of hostilities. As a result, geopolitical factors are no longer the sole driver of the U.S. dollar.
News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:
The economic calendar for August 4 contains only one event of moderate importance. Therefore, the impact of macroeconomic data on market sentiment on Tuesday is likely to be limited or absent.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Long positions may be considered today if the pair rebounds from the 1.1507 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1551. Short positions became valid following a rebound from the 1.1551 level on the hourly chart, with downside targets at 1.1507 and 1.1472. The first target has already been reached, and these positions may continue to be held with the second target in view.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.
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