10.08.202610:40 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: The Euro Is Preparing to Rise

The EUR/USD pair begins the new trading week on a subdued note, trading slightly above 1.1550 and approaching a new high since June 17, which was recorded following disappointing U.S. employment data released on Friday.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data for July showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, significantly below the forecast increase of 80,000. In addition, the previous month's figure was revised downward, showing an increase of 20,000 jobs instead of the initially reported 57,000. Additional data showed that annual wage inflation, measured by the change in average hourly earnings, declined from 3.4% to 3.2%. This offsets the decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in June and weakens the case for higher interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Nevertheless, the market reaction proved short-lived, as continued uncertainty surrounding efforts to restore operations in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz is supporting the U.S. dollar, which is viewed as a safe-haven asset. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of other currencies, is showing no signs of decline, also limiting the EUR/USD pair. However, traders remain cautious and prefer not to rush into positioning decisions while awaiting further developments regarding the situation in the Middle East.

Over the weekend, Iran reported that negotiations with Oman on establishing a safe maritime corridor through this important waterway were nearing completion. Nevertheless, Tehran emphasized that even an agreement would not result in an immediate resumption of shipping. In addition, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen claimed responsibility for a recent attack on an oil refinery in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. A tanker owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was also attacked in the strait. These developments are increasing the geopolitical risk premium and contributing to higher oil prices, intensifying concerns about inflation and the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike at a meeting in 2026.Against the backdrop of a mixed macroeconomic environment, caution is warranted when establishing positions to capitalize on the continuation of the recent sustained uptrend in EUR/USD, which began from the area around 1.1353 reached on July 28. Market participants' attention is now shifting toward fresh U.S. consumer inflation data, due to be released on Wednesday, which will be an important indicator for future Federal Reserve policy. In addition, upcoming geopolitical developments will play a decisive role in the dollar's movements and the creation of short-term trading opportunities in EUR/USD.

From a technical perspective, the bulls have encountered resistance at the 100-day SMA. Once this level is overcome, they could challenge the psychological 1.1600 level and the 200-day SMA. The oscillators are positive, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand in the market. Therefore, the path of least resistance is to the upside.