17.08.202610:20 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: US-Iran truce expires without progress

Lebanon endured the bloodiest day of fighting in months, increasing pressure on stalled US-mediated talks with Iran just as Washington prepares new economic measures. The Israel Defense Forces carried out strikes in Lebanon despite a pause and a US request to refrain from hostilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes were in response to a Hezbollah attack that wounded three soldiers on Saturday. Israel also warned it would strike the Iranian proxy group again if threatened.

The resumption of fighting threatens the US-brokered truce, which envisages Hezbollah's disarmament, a subsequent withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied positions, and a transfer of security responsibility to the Lebanese army. At the same time, it complicates already deadlocked US-Iran negotiations, whose truce expires today.

President Trump's stance is uncompromising. In an interview on Friday, he said he plans to strike Iran's economy hard and added that he does not care whether the conflict ends before the November midterms, the outcome of which will depend largely on voters' perception of the economy.

However, Washington's practical options are limited, which is the central problem for the strategy. It is unclear what additional measures the US can impose without resorting to secondary sanctions. China buys more than 90% of Iran's oil, but sanctions on Beijing risk provoking retaliatory measures, harming the US economy, and increasing uncertainty about global energy prices. Iran's economy has already been heavily damaged: a significant share of industrial capacity is impaired, and oil exports have been sharply reduced by the US maritime blockade. Yet successive waves of sanctions have not forced Tehran to yield on its nuclear program or its control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Before the war, about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas transited the strait. Brent rose almost 6% last week amid attacks on ships that highlighted persistent threats to energy flows, and on Monday in Asia it was largely unchanged, trading below $89 per barrel.

Particularly worrying are signs that Iran is using relative calm to prepare for a larger confrontation. All of this points to a fundamental stalemate, and attacks in and around the strait continue.

Despite the geopolitical turmoil, oil markets have shown no clear rush to buy, and the US dollar likewise is not attracting safe-haven demand. Apparently, traders accept that the Middle East conflict will not end quickly and no longer treat it as a directional signal.

The current technical picture for EUR/USD suggests that buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1590 level. Only that will allow a target test of 1.1620. From there a move to 1.1645 could be possible, but doing so without support from major players would be difficult. On the downside, I expect any serious buying to be only around 1.1570. If there are no buyers there, it would be prudent to wait for a fresh low at 1.1550 or to open long positions from 1.1510.

The current technical picture for GBP/USD suggests that buyers of the pound sterling need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3560. Only that will allow a target of 1.3580, above which further progress will be difficult. The farther target is the 1.3615 area. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3540. If they succeed, a break of the range will inflict a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward a low of 1.3520 with the prospect of extending to 1.3501.