18.08.202609:46 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on August 18. Analysis of Yesterday's Trades on Forex

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3563 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound; however, the pair ultimately did not rise.

Positive U.S. data supported the dollar in the afternoon and undermined risk assets. The Empire State manufacturing index surged by 5 points to 20.6, reflecting the highest level of business activity in New York's manufacturing sector in over four years. This result alleviated some concerns about economic slowdown and strengthened arguments for a more hawkish Fed, which the American currency capitalized on. Against this backdrop, the British pound became dependent on external forces and surrendered ground to the dollar. The strengthening of the U.S. currency diminished demand for riskier assets, causing GBP/USD to retreat. A weak report on the housing market could have served as a mitigating factor, as the NAHB index rose only 1 point to 35 and remained deep in pessimistic territory; however, the market regarded this signal as secondary. The pound had no driving factors of its own, so the strength of the dollar primarily determined the extent of its decline.

Today, the British currency enters the first half of the day with an eye on a significant block of labor market data, including the unemployment rate and changes in the number of unemployment claims. Employment data holds particular weight for the pound, as it shapes expectations for the Bank of England's policy, and the market reacts primarily to deviations of actual figures from forecasts. An increase in the number of claims signals weakening labor market conditions, while a decrease indicates its resilience. The setup for the pair appears cautious. If the figures disappoint and are worse than economists' forecasts, pressure on GBP/USD will only increase, as weakness in employment undermines confidence in the economy's resilience and gives the BoE more reason for caution.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3539 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3558 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3558, I plan to exit my long positions and sell in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Today's growth in the pound can be anticipated to follow the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its rise from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3528 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3539 and 1.3558.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3528 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3510, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Only bad news will bring pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its decline from it.
• Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3539 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3528 and 1.3510.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.