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The price test at 158.91 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by more than 60 pips.
Despite the hawkish tone of the July Federal Reserve minutes, the dollar weakened sharply amid the US Treasury's decision to increase the volume of bond buybacks. The minutes confirmed the central bank's hard stance, but the vote passed with a count of nine against three, with dissenters calling for an immediate hike. Nevertheless, the Treasury's increase in bond buybacks added liquidity to the market and pulled yields down, undermining the dollar despite the Fed's sentiment. For the yen, the dollar's weakening provided a reason to strengthen, as the decline in US yields narrowed the gap with interest rates in Japan and reignited interest in the Japanese currency. Although the difference in approaches between the hawkish Fed and the cautious Bank of Japan remains, the Treasury factor outweighed at the moment, and the USD/JPY pair began to decline.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 158.65 (green line on the chart), with a target of 158.99 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.99, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 158.44 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 158.65 and 158.99 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level of 158.44 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.10, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will return at any moment; any hint from the central bank will suffice. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 158.65 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 158.44 and 158.10 can be expected.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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