21.08.202613:19 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – August 21 (U.S. Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test of 158.78 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed the downward move.

In the second half of the day, the market is awaiting the August U.S. PMIs for manufacturing, services, and the composite index, similar to the data released earlier for the eurozone. These indicators reflect the state of business activity and directly affect expectations for the Fed's interest rate and, consequently, U.S. Treasury yields. For the yen, a stronger dollar creates a risk of further weakness, as it widens the divergence between the Fed's approach and the much more cautious stance of the Bank of Japan. This difference traditionally puts pressure on the Japanese currency. Strong data could push USD/JPY higher, while a weak result would allow the yen to recover some ground.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point is reached around 158.71 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 159.02 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.02, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the level in the opposite direction. A rise in the pair can be expected today, but the outlook is rather uncertain. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 158.46 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.71 and 159.02 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 158.46 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 158.07, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from the level in the opposite direction. Downward pressure on the pair will return today if the central bank intervenes. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 158.71 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.46 and 158.07 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.