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GBP/USD continues to rise, which I consider entirely justified. Reports on the US economy, labor market, and inflation have largely settled the debate over whether the FOMC will raise interest rates in September. Nonfarm Payrolls declined for the fourth consecutive month and fell below zero. The US economy is slowing. Inflation is declining. The situation could change based on the August data, but at present, the FOMC is much closer to maintaining a wait-and-see stance than to making hawkish decisions. The US Treasury's decision to increase the volume of Treasury buybacks must also be taken into account. This is a clear signal to the market that the budget is under pressure and can no longer cope with the burden. US government debt has risen to $40 trillion under Donald Trump, which does not increase investors' and traders' confidence in US securities or the dollar.
Do bears have any prospects at present? In my view, no. A new buy signal formed last week, allowing traders to open new long positions, which are already showing profits of around 100 points. Since June 24, the pound has generated three buy signals and also provided advance warning of the upcoming liquidity sweep. The bears currently have neither patterns nor signals. At this point, they can only count on a corrective pullback, which could begin after liquidity is swept from the May 1 high. I would also note the new bullish imbalance 27, within which another buy signal could form. In other words, under the current circumstances, a small corrective pullback could actually be beneficial, as it could allow traders to enter the market with new positions.
As I have already noted, geopolitics is no longer having a favorable effect on the dollar, as negotiations between the United States and Iran have effectively become deadlocked. Officially, Tehran is negotiating only with Oman. It remains unclear what these negotiations will lead to in terms of ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may be able to agree with Oman on terms for controlling the Strait of Hormuz, but how would that resolve the conflict with the United States and end the US blockade of the strait? Meanwhile, Donald Trump has decided to impose a second blockade on Iran—this time a financial one. At the same time, he plans to impose sanctions on all countries supporting Iran. A new global conflict may be approaching, which at best would take the form of a trade or sanctions conflict.
This week, oil is trading at $93 per barrel, but in my view, it will return above $100 in the near future. If this happens, inflation in the United States or the United Kingdom will begin accelerating again. The Bank of England is prepared to tighten monetary policy, while the Fed is raising doubts about its readiness to adopt a hawkish stance. This is the key difference. The pound has an advantage over the dollar in terms of monetary policy.
The chart analysis indicates another bullish advance. At present, traders have three bullish imbalances (25, 26, and 27) within which long positions can be considered. Naturally, the main focus should be on the latest and nearest imbalance to the current price—27. A liquidity sweep of the May 1 high could trigger a corrective pullback, and this pullback could extend even below imbalance 27. Therefore, I recommend opening new long positions within imbalance 27 only after confirmation signals have formed, rather than simply when the price reaches the area of interest.
There was no significant economic news on Monday, but the US economic calendar contains a number of important reports and events this week. In addition, Donald Trump is likely to make further announcements. The week promises to be interesting.
The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, in the long term, I see little reason to expect anything other than a decline in the US dollar. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed this. Geopolitical tensions caused the market to remember the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its active phase. The chances of FOMC monetary-policy tightening have declined significantly in recent weeks, putting pressure on the US currency. Therefore, in my view, any dollar strength is temporary and driven by short-term factors. I see no reason for a new bearish advance.
On August 25, the economic calendar contains three entries, none of which is particularly important. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be very limited or absent.
The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity sweeps of the two most recent swings and the formation of a series of buy signals, the bulls continue to advance. I currently see no basis for a bearish move, as there are no bearish patterns or signals. The bulls received a buy signal from imbalance 24, which remains valid. Traders can already consider taking profit on this signal. A new buy signal formed within imbalance 26. The current target for the pound is the January 27 high at 1.3867. A liquidity sweep of the May 1 swing could push the pound somewhat lower, but it is unlikely to disrupt the bullish advance.
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