03.09.202609:10 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USDJPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 3. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price test at 159.79 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair fell toward the target level of 159.55.

Good data from Japan combined with another coordinated currency intervention by the Bank of Japan and the United States led to a sharp drop in the dollar and a strengthening of the yen. The August services PMI rose to 52.5 from the prior 51.2, and the composite PMI increased to 53.5 from 52.7. PMI indices are built on company surveys and reflect the state of the economy, with values above 50 indicating expansion. The confident acceleration in services reinforced belief in the resilience of the Japanese economy and strengthened expectations of a tighter Bank of Japan policy. This is especially important against the backdrop of the recent weak manufacturing PMI, which had earlier pressured the yen — now the services sector offset the negative from industry.

The main driver, however, was the intervention itself. This time it was a fait accompli: regulators entered the market jointly, and coordination with the U.S. gave the actions particular weight and sharply amplified the effect. Recall that the BoJ has previously intervened to support the national currency when it weakened excessively, and this time the joint actions pushed USD/JPY down and allowed the yen to recover a significant portion of recent losses.

The combination of strong domestic data and direct intervention shifted the balance of power in favor of the yen, especially as the divergence in approaches between the BoJ and the Federal Reserve is beginning to narrow as rate expectations in Japan rise. The further dynamics of USD/JPY will now depend on whether the intervention's effect holds, whether subsequent data confirm the nascent acceleration of the Japanese economy, and on the rhetoric of BoJ Governor Ueda.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point around 157.75 (the green line on the chart) is reached, with a target to rise to 158.13 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.13, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 157.38, with the MACD indicator in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 157.75 and 158.13.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.38 level (the red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.98, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers will return at any moment — we only need any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.75 while the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 157.38 and 156.98.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.