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The EUR/USD pair consolidated below the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1620 on Friday, but whether the bears will be able to continue their advance remains an open question. On Friday, they received some support from the Nonfarm Payrolls report, but such favorable developments will not come often. Consolidation above 1.1620 would favor the European currency and a resumption of the advance toward the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1700.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains "bullish" despite the two-week decline. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave did not break below the previous low. Geopolitical developments remain consistently negative: no negotiations are taking place between Iran and the United States, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. For the dollar, the FOMC's stance is currently more important, but it remains contradictory.
The news background supported the bears on Friday, but they acted somewhat cautiously, as if already anticipating the Fed and ECB meetings, as well as the U.S. inflation report. This week, the ECB may implement its second monetary policy tightening in 2026, which would provide strong support for further gains in the European currency. Let me remind you that Fed policy tightening remains an open question. There is no certainty that the Fed will raise its interest rate in September. Therefore, traders are not rushing to draw conclusions. The U.S. inflation report will be released this week and should provide some additional clues regarding the September FOMC meeting. However, at present, the market recognizes that the ECB is almost certain to raise rates, while a Fed rate hike remains uncertain. Thus, until the inflation report is released on Friday, the European currency will have an advantage. The main thing is for the bulls to capitalize on it. I expect the bullish advance to resume even if the Fed ultimately tightens monetary policy. The latest labor market reports were too weak, while a single August report does not yet change the overall picture.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded from the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1588, signaling a reversal in favor of the European currency. Thus, in the near term, the euro may return to 1.1649. A rebound from this level would allow for a further advance by the bears after a breakout from the ascending channel. Consolidation above 1.1649 would allow for further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1726. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 4,558 Long positions and closed 6,869 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated due to the war in Iran, while over the past twenty-three weeks, the situation has leveled out amid the supposed truce and market hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 203,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 228,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is rapidly narrowing.
Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Clearly, various events around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war alternately appears to end and then resume. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.
News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On September 7, the economic calendar contains two entries, neither of which is of particular interest. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Monday may be weak or absent.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Buying the pair is possible after a close above 1.1620 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1700. Selling the pair is possible after consolidation below 1.1620 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1551.
The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849 to 1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.
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