09.09.202605:54 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Watch on September 9? Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Review of macroeconomic releases:

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Wednesday—not in Germany, the eurozone, the US, or the UK. Therefore, we will most likely see the third consecutive "boring" day with no intraday trend moves and minimal volatility.

Review of fundamental events:

The only notable fundamental event on Wednesday is a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. However, recall that the ECB meeting is tomorrow and the outcome is largely known: all three key rates are expected to be raised. Lagarde is unlikely today to discuss monetary policy in detail or to preannounce tomorrow's tightening, so her remarks may go largely unnoticed by the market.

The geopolitical backdrop remains poor. The US and Iran are not negotiating, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, and Yemeni Houthis continue blocking Saudi Arabia. Donald Trump has announced an unprecedented economic operation to "destroy" Iran and threatens sanctions against any countries that interact with it. So far, no one has supported Trump's plan to destroy Iran, and whether it will be implemented is unknown. Over the weekend, Iran and the US again exchanged strikes, which the market largely ignored.

General conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, currency pairs may return to their usual intraday dynamics. Trade the euro from the 1.1655–1.1665 area and the pound from 1.3587–1.3598. The downward correction in the euro and the pound may already be complete, and this week's macro and fundamental events could create renewed pressure on the US dollar.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.