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The EUR/USD currency pair was virtually immobile for most of Wednesday but ended the day with a sharp plunge triggered by the Federal Reserve meeting. Recall that market consensus held the Fed would raise the policy rate by 25 bp but refrain from signaling additional hikes or the start of a prolonged tightening cycle. Surprises do occur in FX markets. Despite Kevin Warsh being appointed by Donald Trump — and despite Trump's continued calls for rate cuts — the FOMC unanimously voted to raise rates, and the dot plot showed a hawkish tilt among the majority of members. Warsh himself said the Fed will "achieve a reduction in inflation," not merely "seek to achieve it," and that nuance marks a material difference. The market now expects at least one more tightening before year-end, and yesterday's move was a reaction to that follow-on tightening.
Technically, a downtrend continues to form and is now taking on the character of a full-blown trend. The market once again ignored the European Central Bank's hawkish decision but emphatically priced the Fed's hike. If this continues, the dollar could stay strong for a long time.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, a sell signal formed after a rejection from the 1.1536–1.1542 zone. Traders who acted on that signal had the opportunity to profit as price fell into the 1.1461–1.1473 area by the end of the day, where they could take profits.
The latest COT report is dated September 8. On the weekly timeframe, it is clear that non-commercial traders' net position turned bearish and fell sharply in 2026 amid geopolitical events. Traders have reduced euro exposure in favor of the US dollar over the past six months. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar acted as a reserve currency for a time.
However, we still do not see fundamental support for further USD strength. The Middle East war made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when that factor's "shelf life" expires, everything will return to normal — and that shelf life may already have expired. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (trend line), but the uptrend remains intact. During the recent months of dollar strength, the pair has not approached that trend line closely.
The placement of the red and blue indicator lines indicates an approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, longs in the "Non-commercial" group fell by 500 contracts while shorts rose by 12,700. Accordingly, the net position declined by 17,700 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend, and the Fed strongly contributed to the downward move. The ECB should have supported the euro last week, since it raised rates for the second time in 2026, but the market now sees only the Fed and its tightening. Thus, the dollar has effectively formed a new trend out of thin air, and market sentiment may remain completely bearish going forward.
For September 17 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1610) and the Kijun-sen (1.1538). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Remember to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal proves false.
On Thursday, the euro area will publish the second-estimate August inflation report, and the US will release secondary housing-sector data. Today, the market will focus on the Bank of England meeting, and we may also see continued reactions to the Fed meeting during the day.
Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1362–1.1368 if price consolidates below the 1.1461–1.1473 area. A bounce from the 1.1461–1.1473 area will allow you to open long positions targeting 1.1536–1.1542. Volatility may remain high today.
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
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