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On Monday, gold (XAU/USD) eased in price but continues to trade above the 200-day EMA. Market participants await developments in the Middle East and assessment of their impact on inflation — factors that will influence rate expectations and, consequently, gold prices.
Last Saturday, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen attacked strategic targets in Riyadh using missiles and drones. Tehran has ruled out reopening the Strait of Hormuz or resuming talks with the US until Washington meets a number of conditions, including ending military actions, unfreezing Iranian assets and lifting maritime blockades. At the same time, US President Donald Trump said he is considering options regarding a possible war with Iran, warning of potentially serious developments — all of which increases the geopolitical risk premium.
An added headwind for gold is the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which supports demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset even amid market corrections. The dot-plot showed Fed officials expect at least one more hike this year after last week's increase, creating notable pressure on gold. However, the recent retreat in US Treasury yields from multi-year highs could restrain dollar bulls from aggressive action and thus limit further gold weakness.
Risks of further Fed tightening rise given US economic resilience. Nordea analysts note the US economy remains solid, inflationary pressures are not abating, and the labor market is improving — a combination that strengthens the case for tighter policy. Nordea maintains a forecast for two additional hikes but warns the Fed may ultimately need to act more aggressively than currently anticipated.
Renewed Saudi oil exports have pushed crude prices lower, easing concerns about runaway inflation and helping keep 10-year Treasury yields below 5%. Traders are taking a wait-and-see stance ahead of a planned meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. FOMC members' remarks will also influence the dollar and gold.
The mixed fundamental backdrop calls for caution in positioning and makes a clear short-term directional forecast difficult.
Technical view: XAU/USD remains below the 100-day EMA, indicating a moderately bearish bias. RSI is near 49, signaling neutral momentum, and MACD is also neutral.
On the upside, initial resistance is at the 100-day EMA near $4,360 and the 20-day SMA around $4,406, with a more significant barrier at the 200-day SMA near $4,540.
On the downside, the nearest support is at $4,317 — the 200-day EMA. Below that sits the round $4,300 level (where the 50-day SMA is located), then the September low and the round $4,200 mark.
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