25.09.202609:15 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: The Market Is Tired of Believing Words Without Action

Oil eased slightly on news that US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased deal under which Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Global benchmark Brent fell below $106 per barrel after rising more than 7% over the previous two days, while WTI traded around $93. Both countries, which have failed to reach similar agreements in recent months, sought a breakthrough on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, but so far real action beyond words has not materialized.

Today, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had submitted a new seven-day proposal to Washington to open Hormuz subject to certain conditions. The concrete seven-day time horizon distinguishes this initiative from earlier rounds of talks. It helps explain why the market reacted with a noticeable price drop rather than another wave of cautious optimism.

Recall that since the start of the year, Brent has risen more than 70%, amplifying inflationary pressure. That backdrop explains why the market is pricing in any move toward de-escalation so sharply. Without material changes, Brent will likely remain in the $100–110 range, whereas a convincing phased deal could quickly push the price back below $100. At the same time, another disruption to exports or logistics could again put $120 back on the table.

On the shorter horizon, despite the Friday pullback in near futures, oil remains on track for a weekly gain because several widely watched indicators continue to signal serious concerns about near-term supplies. The Strait of Hormuz itself remains effectively closed. The Islamic Republic insists on sovereign control over the strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil and gas shipments pass in peacetime. At the same time, the US says the route's status should not change even as it maintains a blockade of Iranian ports.

In my view, Iran's seven-day proposal and the simultaneous expansion of France's and Britain's military presence in the region show that diplomatic and military tracks are developing in parallel, not sequentially, and that makes the market particularly cautious about judging real progress. I do not rule out that, absent concrete confirmation of a deal within the coming week, Brent will retest the upper boundary of the range at $110, while an actual launch of a phased agreement could quickly take the price down toward the lower boundary of about $100.

On the technical side, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $96. That would allow targeting $100, beyond which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farthest target is the $104 area. In the event of a decline, bears will try to seize control of $92. If they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push Oil down to a low of $89 with the prospect of reaching $87.