01.10.202613:24 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – October 1 (US Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of 1.1316 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a short position in the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1291.

What happened to the euro today is difficult to explain solely by expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rates — the real story is unfolding in France. The presentation of the 2027 budget is becoming a test for the country's entire political system: parliamentary debates carry the risk of the prime minister being removed from office, while the document itself is already raising doubts among investors about the sustainability of French public finances. In my view, this uncertainty became the main trigger for today's euro selling, rather than comments from US policymakers.

The most notable aspect of today's market dynamics is the economic data the market chose to ignore in favor of positioning against Europe. The eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 from 52.7 in August, reaching its highest level since May 2022.

Interestingly, today's US economic data released in the second half of the day appears secondary compared with what Jeffrey Schmid and Susan Collins, representatives of the Federal Reserve, may say in their comments. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is unlikely to provide a major surprise, as the positive trend in this area is already clear. The remarks from the two FOMC members, however, are a case where the form may prove more important than the substance: the market will analyze not only the facts but also the tone of their comments. Recent US inflation and labor-market data have brought the situation to a crossroads — they do not indicate an urgent need for further policy tightening, but they also provide no clear reason for a dovish shift in rhetoric. In this situation, every Federal Reserve official's speech becomes a kind of test: will policymakers confirm a pause, or will they instead leave room for a cautious approach?

For the euro, which is already under pressure because of political uncertainty in France, this uncertainty on the part of the Federal Reserve adds another layer of risk.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1288 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1332. At 1.1332, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected following weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1257 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1288 and 1.1332 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1257 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1226, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1288 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1257 and 1.1226 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to remain out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.