01.10.202613:55 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Best quarter since 2024

Today, Bitcoin remained range-bound, as did Ether, as traders await new decision points, especially after yesterday's PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, surprised everyone by rising 0.3% in August and 3.4% year-on-year, versus economists' forecasts of 0.4% and 3.7%, respectively. However, the overall backdrop for Bitcoin remains heavy. The 10-year US Treasury yield reached about 5.25%, a 2002 high, and such yields divert money away from non-yielding assets.

Against this background, the quarter's results look stronger than the market feels. Bitcoin closed Q3 up 42.71%, marking the best result since Q4 2024 and the strongest third quarter since 2017. September finished +6.33%, despite historically averaging -2.41% for the month. October is typically stronger: average Bitcoin returns are +18.52% and the median +12.73%; October has closed negative only three times in history. The gap between mean and median shows the mean is inflated by a few explosive Octobers, so the median is a more sensible benchmark.

Market sentiment already reflects this rise. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 74 today, in greed territory, up from 71 yesterday, 71 a week ago, and 69 a month ago. Sentiment is rising faster than the price, and the index creators note that an overly greedy market is ripe for a correction.

I expect the range breakout to occur in the coming days, and given strong October seasonality and a moderation in Fed hike bets, Bitcoin has a better chance initially moving up to $86,000 than down. A high greed reading makes such a move fragile, and any acceleration in yields or oil could quickly stop it.

Technically, Bitcoin sits between support at $83,700 and resistance at $84,100, and the plan is built around this corridor. For buy entries, the first option is a confirmed breakout above $84,100, targeting $84,800, where I would take profits and consider a short position on the pullback, provided the price remains above the 50-day MA and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. The second option works if the downside breakout fails: a bounce from $83,700 or a false drop to $82,900 opens a buying opportunity, with an initial target back to $84,100 and then $84,800.

For sell entries, the conditions are mirrored. A confirmed break below $83,700 presents a selling opportunity to $82,900, but only when the 50-day MA sits above the price, and the Awesome Oscillator has dropped below zero. If a breakout above $84,100 fails and the price rejects that level, a short position will target a return to $83,700 and then $82,900.

As for Ether, the logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own scale: the working corridor is between support at 2,690 and resistance at 2,705. A buy position can be considered on a breakout above 2,705 with a target of 2,731 (take profit and allow a short position on a pullback), or on a bounce from 2,690 or a false drop to 2,668, targeting first 2,705 and then 2,731. A sell entry is possible on a confirmed break below 2,690 with a target of 2,668, or on a failed breakout at 2,705; then targets are first 2,690 and then 2,668. The 50-day MA and Awesome Oscillator conditions are the same as for Bitcoin. Both indicators are filters to avoid false moves rather than triggers to enter early, so trades should be taken only after the price confirms the specified levels.