02.10.202604:28 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Watch on October 2? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Not many macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday, but almost every one is trend-forming. First, the Eurozone will publish the September inflation report, and recall that European Central Bank monetary policy depends on inflation — the ECB is "hawkish," although the market pays it no attention. Nevertheless, the report is important. Later, the United States will release Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate, both of which are significant locally and globally. If the US labor market begins to slow again, this could materially reduce the market's "hawkish" expectations for Federal Reserve policy. However, in recent weeks the market has ignored any factors and buys the dollar.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Friday's fundamental events, one could note a speech by Fed official Lorie Logan and remarks by several ECB representatives (in particular Vujcic and Cipollone), but these events currently exert no influence on euro or dollar exchange rates. Recall that this week John Williams of the Fed said there was no need to rush a new policy tightening, which did not affect the US currency.

The geopolitical backdrop still leaves much to be desired, but it is at least not getting worse. The US and Iran are not conducting official negotiations at the moment, although Donald Trump said his team had a very good meeting with Iranian representatives at the UN General Assembly and that a deal could be signed after the US Congressional elections. However, the market does not believe in such a rosy development. Trump rejected Iran's peaceful offer over the weekend. After the Congressional elections, he may resume military action, because (everyone understands this well) the probability of a deal remains close to zero. The conflict persists, and war could resume at any moment.

General Conclusions:

On the final trading day of the week, currency pairs can continue to decline calmly, since the move no longer depends on fundamentals, geopolitics, or macroeconomics. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1198–1.1218 and 1.1267–1.1275 areas, and the pound sterling from the 1.3175–1.3180 area. Volatility today may be high.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.