09.10.202611:32 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: France's Debt Crisis Weighs on the Euro

Today, Friday, the final trading day of the week, EUR/USD has attracted buying interest for the second consecutive day amid US dollar weakness. Nevertheless, the pair remains within the range established at the beginning of the month, prompting bulls to exercise caution.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump stated that the United States did not plan to resume military action against Iran before the midterm elections on November 3. This statement, combined with the recent decline in US Treasury yields, triggered profit-taking on long dollar positions. However, geopolitical risks persist amid tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program. In addition, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may limit further dollar weakness and constrain the EUR/USD pair's upward movement.

Furthermore, France's growing debt burden and the political crisis ahead of next year's elections may discourage aggressive buying of the single currency. This factor, combined with the technical outlook, which suggests a higher probability of further declines, indicates that sustained buying pressure is needed to confirm the formation of a short-term bottom and extend the moderate recovery that began this week from 1.1160. This level marked the October low and was also the low recorded in May 2025.

Given the decline from the August high, the current price action within the narrow range can still be characterized as a bearish consolidation, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in oversold territory and the MACD is also negative.

Therefore, any further upward movement will encounter significant resistance at the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 1.1260, and at 1.1285, the upper boundary of the trading range. The next level is 1.1300. A break above this level could trigger a short-covering rally toward the next key resistance level at 1.1355–1.1360. However, such an advance may be viewed as a selling opportunity and is likely to lose momentum quickly, given the prevailing bullish sentiment toward the US dollar.

Nevertheless, the overall picture confirms the dominance of the downward trend. If the price falls below 1.1200, it could reach the support zone around 1.1160. A failure to hold this zone would provide a new signal for bears, potentially paving the way for a deeper decline.